Entrepreneurs tend to be optimistic by nature. As the year 2024 ends and 2025 begins, there is ample reason for many entrepreneurs to feel good about the New Year. A boom in the valuation of technology-based companies, private and public, drove expansive optimism in that sector, only to be curtailed over the last 3 months by political issues, questions about the growth of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and potential global tariffs and trade wars.
But storm warnings are already on the horizon.
According to recent data a slowdown is finally occurring, the question being whether the U.S. economy will have a soft landing” or “a hard landing” (read as recession). The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that there were only 142,000 jobs added in August, down from the monthly gain of 202,000 over the last year. This trend has been relatively consistent since August 2023 as the unemployment rate (non-farm payroll) has risen from 3.5% to 4.2%.
In addition, the number of full-time employees has declined significantly over the last year, while part-time employment has risen. One interpretation of this statistic is that employers are replacing long-term workers with short-term workers to give employers more flexibility if a downturn were to occur.
Additionally, the National Federation of Independent Business, found that small business new job creation is declining with less than 15% of small businesses planning to create new jobs in the next quarter.
Early warning signals?
But how can an economic downturn or recession happen when our economy is experiencing record GDP increases and we still have essentially full employment?
Interestingly, a full employment economy can contribute to the likelihood of a recession. Businesses that are labor constrained cannot grow as rapidly and they encounter a “growth ceiling”. Political policies such as immigration curtailment as we have seen over the last year as compared to the prior three years will also affect the labor supply, further reducing growth.
A downturn, caused by the natural ebb of the economy or by a shock such as a geopolitical crisis, is always a possibility, bringing back conditions we remember all too well from the years after 2008: declining revenues and margins, excess capacity, anxious employees and restless investors. Even if a recession doesn’t come to pass, your company might have its own downturn this year, caused by a new competitor or new substitutes for your products and services.
Why not start with a resolution to do some contingency planning for the possibility of a downturn later this year? Below are 4 steps to take to manage your way through a potentially very challenging year.
1. Manage profitability
Most companies have a relatively narrow margin for error. A 10% decline in revenue could wipe out the entire bottom line of your company. Having a contingency plan to produce marginal, short-term profit despite a drop in revenues can make all the difference.
Consider doing the following:
- Develop forecasts based on optimistic, realistic and worst-case revenue scenarios.
- Formulate contingency plans. Make sure your top managers are on board with the plans and are ready to act quickly if revenues decline.
- Agree with your management team on early warning signals, such as a shrinking backlog, a downturn in customer-market indices, or a worsening sales pipeline.
- Be willing to adjust discretionary spending at more frequent intervals, for example, quarterly or even on a rolling basis.
- Be ready to keep bankers and investors appropriately informed in case of a downturn and to communicate the actions you’re ready to take to limit the damage.
2. Manage your Cash Conversion Cycle
Many businesses look more like banks than actual companies, meaning that generous credit terms to your customers put you in the position of funding their companies. Paying vendors too quickly as compared to your competitors can have the same effect. Managing your “Days Outstanding” on vendor payables and tightening your credit terms to your customers can have a very significant impact on your cash flows.
3. Identify and maintain your strengths and your best customers
Identify the strengths that have enabled your success to date, and those that will be important in the future. Which capabilities and skills are most critical? What distinguishes your ability to serve customers effectively?
Identify your highest-margin customers, and understand what you are doing right for them. Develop a game plan, in the event of a downturn, to protect and build on the strengths that have allowed you to be indispensable to them. In the event of a dip in business, rather than cutting costs across the board, be ready to shift resources to retain these high-margin customers.
Continue to be creative in how you can add value for your customers without increasing your costs. Example: a professional services firm adds regular briefings to client executives to monetize its intellectual capital.
4. Be ready to decide what you can stop doing
Companies that create enduring value typically excel at discontinuing what no longer adds value. Be ready to make changes in cost structure that will least damage your strengths and will hone your value proposition down to what customers really value.
Comb through your cost structure to create a contingency plan for what you would cut. Identify what’s inefficient, what’s nice to have but dispensable, what’s there because of history, inertia or wishful thinking, what may have worked in the past but doesn’t anymore, what isn’t creating value as it used to.
Realize the challenges you would face in cutting costs. Most organizations aren’t adept at taking costs out quickly as revenues decline, and margins suffer. Even your most hard-headed managers will try to protect their own people first. As your company has grown, your operations have probably become more complex. Be ready to take a knife to any complexity that isn’t compliance-required or value-adding. Consider outsourcing non-strategic company functions such as human resources, accounting and even finance.
5. Manage liquidity as hard as profitability
A downturn might force you to deal not only with negative growth but also with liquidity constraints. Trying to maintain liquidity on a smaller revenue base can be crippling.
You would need a plan to turn over every balance sheet dollar faster to contribute to working capital. You’ll need plans to:
- Maximize cash flow by narrowing the timing between sales and outlays for costs you incur in advance, such as inventories.
- Collect from customers faster. Consider offering discounts for paying promptly or require deposits from customers.
- Take advantage of increased supplier willingness to share risk and to provide favorable terms.
- Lease versus buy. Consider financing capital equipment purchases versus cash purchases of equipment such as trucks and equipment to conserve cash.
- Line of Credit. Obtain or expand a Line of Credit with a bank and have it available as a safety net in the event that lending tightens.
Be ready to shrink to survive
The list of things a CEO needs to do to plan to survive a downturn is long and can seem daunting. You would need to avoid disassembling what has made you successful while accepting the necessity of shrinking it for the near-term. Managing through the crisis may require some skills that have been rusting in your managerial tool case.
In the event of a downturn, you’ll no longer be insulated by growth. Disciplined decision making will be essential. You’ll need to lead with the right proportions of cost-conscious frugality and bold innovation.
Hopefully 2025 will be a banner year for your company. But just in case it isn’t, invest some time now to plan how you will survive an economic downturn.
Michael Evans is a Managing Director in the Newport LLC, an advisory firm serving middle market companies.
